Macro and Politics

* TURKSTAT will release November home sales figures @ 10:00 local time. Total home sales climbed by 17.2% m/m and 79.1% y/y in October to 165,138 units. Mortgaged home house sales, which accounted for 12.8% of all home sales in October, soared by 33.3% m/m and 278.2% y/y to 21,095. Moreover, home sales to foreigners, which represented 1.3% share of all home sales in October, decreased by 4.7% m/m and 16.3% y/y to 2,122.

* The CBT will release October short-term external debt stock figures @ 10:00 local time. Short-term external debt stock in September materialized at USD176.4bn, up merely by 0.1% compared to 2023YE. In terms of short-term debt statistics, we believe that “debt stock on a remaining maturity basis,” calculated based on the external debt maturing within one year or less regarding the original maturity, is rather critical, which is at USD233.1bn as of September 2024. Out of this figure, USD21.4bn is debt to the resident banks and private sectors to the banks’ branches and affiliates abroad. Stripping this amount from the total results in USD211.7bn. We also add 12-month forward-looking CAD expectations on this amount so as to reach Turkey’s annual external financing need (EFN).  Accordingly, we calculate EFN as of September 2024 around USD225bn.

* The Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) registered a monthly rise of 2.8% and an annual increase of 29.48% in November, reaching a level of 155.4. Yet, in real terms, RPPI dropped further by 12% y/y. The real depreciation in RPPI on an annual basis has persisted since February.

* The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL18.6bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 3y CPI-indexed and 10y fixed coupon bond auctions, while also sold TL1.5bn at the direct sale of 2y lease certificate. Accordingly, the Treasury has finalized its domestic borrowing program for December and the domestic borrowing since the beginning of the month totaled TL130.4bn, slightly below the initial projection of TL132bn.