Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
*We expect the October Current Account Balance to register a surplus of USD1.3bn. The CBRT will release October Balance of Payment figures today @ 10:00 local time. According to the survey conducted by Foreks, the median estimate for October current account balance is a surplus of USD1.3bn, in line with our house estimate. We expect the current balance to revert to a deficit in the last two months of the year, with the annual deficit increasing slightly. We project an annual current account deficit of USD9.5bn (0.7% of GDP) for 2024, excluding any potential revisions and our year-end current account deficit expectation for 2025 is USD15bn (1% of GDP). Our forecasts are based on the assumption of no disruptions in energy prices and the continuation of low levels of gold imports.
* The CBRT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and gross & net international reserves for the period of November 29 – December 6 today @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations upon the CBRT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of November 29 – December 6, the gross FX reserves rose by USD1.7bn to USD159.5bn and the net international reserves climbed by USD1bn to USD65.1bn. To recall the data from the previous week (November 22 – 29): The CBRT’s gross FX reserves rose by USD1.1bn to USD157.9bn and net international reserves climbed by USD3.3bn to USD64.1bn. Net reserves excluding swaps, moreover, increased by USD4bn to USD45.6bn. Regarding standard portfolio channels, the equity and the bond market (excluding repo transactions) experienced a net foreign inflow of USD280mn and USD610.2mn, respectively. Besides, the foreigners’ share in total bond stock remained unchanged at 7.6%. As for the money & banking statistics, the residents’ FX deposits slid merely by USD93mn (gold accounts excluded, EUR/USD parity adjusted), while total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) decreased by USD538mn in the week of November 22 – 29.