Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
* The sequential (the seasonal and calendar adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) contracted by 0.9% m/m as of October, while the calendar adjusted IP narrowed by 3.1% y/y. As per the subsectors of the industry, the mining and quarrying index decreased by 4.8% m/m, while manufacturing index decreased by 1% m/m. On the other hand, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply index increased by 3.3% in October 2024, compared with previous month.
* The adjusted unemployment rate remained edged up to 8.8% from 8.7% as of October. The broad-based unemployment calculations also deteriorated as the rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – including time-related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment—increased by 1.9 ppts to 27.6%. Furthermore, the combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment climbed to 18.5% from 17.3%, while the combined rate of unemployment and potential labor force rose to 19% from 17.9%.
* The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL32.2bn (including non-competitive sales) via yesterday’s 9m G-bond and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions. Accordingly, the total domestic borrowing of the Treasury this month has reached TL78.4bn. After this week’s auctions, 2y fixed coupon and 6y FRN bond auctions on December 16th and 3y CPI-indexed and 10y fixed coupon bond auctions as well as the direct sale of 2y lease certificate on December 17th and finalize its domestic borrowing program for December. According to three-month (Dec 24 – Feb 25) domestic borrowing strategy, the Treasury has a total domestic redemption of TL71.5bn in December, while in return plans to borrow TL132bn throughout the month, indicating a roll-over ratio of 185%.