Macro and Politics
Tacirler Investment
* TURKSTAT will release October Industrial Production (IP) figures today @ 10:00 local time. The sequential (the seasonal and calendar adjusted monthly figure) industrial production (IP) increased by 1.6% m/m as of September 2024, while the calendar adjusted IP narrowed by 2.4% y/y. In August, factory shutdowns due to maintenance activities in the transportation sector had a significant impact on the monthly contraction in IP figures. The dissipation of this effect by September played a key role in supporting the monthly recovery. Regarding the October figures, leading indicators like the energy & gold excluded intermediary goods imports and the Real Sector Confidence Index signaled a more optimistic outlook compared to the previous month. Therefore, the relatively “positive” picture presented by the leading indicators for October is likely to be reflected in the seasonally adjusted IP figures.
* October Employment figures will be released @ 10:00 local time. The adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.6% as of September. The broad-based unemployment calculations improved slightly as the rate of composite measure of labor underutilization – including time-related underemployment, potential labor force and unemployment—dropped by 1.7 ppts to 25.6%. Furthermore, the combined rate of time-related underemployment and unemployment dropped to 17.3% from 18.2%, while the combined rate of unemployment and potential labor force decreased to 17.9% from 18.7%.
*The Treasury will hold 9m G-bond and 5y fixed coupon bond auctions today. The Treasury tapped the domestic markets to the tune of TL46.2bn via yesterday’s 4y TLREF-index bond auction. According to three-month (Dec 24 – Feb 25) domestic borrowing strategy, the Treasury has a total domestic redemption of TL71.5bn in December, while in return plans to borrow TL132bn throughout the month, indicating a roll-over ratio of 185%. After this week’s auctions, 2y fixed coupon and 6y FRN bond auctions on December 16th and 3y CPI-indexed and 10y fixed coupon bond auctions as well as the direct sale of 2y lease certificate on December 17th and finalize its domestic borrowing program for December.