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Macro and Politics

Tacirler Investment

* The CBRT will release weekly foreign portfolio flows, money & banking statistics, and gross & net international reserves for the period of November 22 – 29 today @ 14:30 local time. Based on our calculations upon the CBRT’s analytical balance sheet, we estimate that during the week of November 22 – 29, the gross FX reserves rose by USD1.1bn to USD157.9bn and the net international reserves climbed by USD3.2bn to USD64.1bn. To recall the data from the previous week (November 15 – 22): The CBRT’s gross FX reserves decreased by a modest USD26mn to USD156.8bn, while the net international reserves rose by USD1.82bn to USD60.8bn. The net reserves excluding swaps, on the other hand, eased by USD2.43bn to USD41.6bn. Regarding standard portfolio channels, both the equity and bond markets (excluding repo transactions) saw a net foreign outflow USD272.3mn and USD814.2mn, respectively. Additionally, net foreign inflows to the bond market came to a halt after six consecutive weeks of inflows, and the foreign share of the total bond stock decreased to 7.6% from 7.8%. As for the money & banking statistics, residents’ FX deposits slumped by USD2.3bn (gold accounts excluded, EUR/USD parity adjusted) in the period of November 15 – 22, while the residents’ total FX deposits (including gold, price adjusted) slid by USD2bn in the mentioned week.

*The CBRT released the November CPI-based Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) Index at 67.03, up from the previous month’s 64.84, indicating a monthly real appreciation of 3.4%. Accordingly, the real appreciation over the last three months has totaled 27.3%. PPI-based REER, moreover, climbed to 96.42 from 94.50 in November.

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