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Macro and Politics

Tacirler Investment

*The CBRT will release November Real Effective Exchange Rate today @14:30 local time. Considering the inflation realizations as well as the average Basket/TRY change, we expect REER to merely slide to 64.7 level as of November from the previous month’s 64.8.

* TURSTAT will release November seasonally adjusted CPI and special CPI aggregates today @16:00 local time. Based on our calculations, we estimate the seasonally adjusted headline CPI to be around 2.4%, and the monthly average of Core-B and Core-C to be approximately 2.3% in November.

* The CBRT will release the Monthly Price Developments report for November today @18:00 local time. The report is a technical one and does not contain a policy message. Still, the assessment of trend core inflation will be monitored closely.

* November CPI rose by 2.2% m/m, slightly higher than our house forecast at 1.9% and the median estimate at 2%. Accordingly, annual inflation dropped to 47.1% from the previous month’s 48.6%. We calculate that the seasonally adjusted monthly CPI showed a slight decline from 2.5% to 2.4% in November. We expect a similar outcome in the adjusted data to be released today. Inflation continues to be mainly driven by demand inertia and food prices. However, based on the messages from the November meeting, it seems that the high food price increases, which are outside the direct influence of monetary policy, are not seen as a barrier to the upcoming interest rate cuts. Therefore, following November's inflation results, we maintain our view that the rate cut process is likely to begin in December. However, there is an increasing likelihood that the cuts may be more moderate than the market’s consensus of around 250bps. We expect the CPI to end the year at about 45%, with a forecast of 26% for the end of 2026.

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