Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Following the Christmas holidays, the market sentiment abroad appears positive, while domestically, momentum has regained after the minimum wage increase, which is viewed as supportive in the fight against inflation. Due to limited foreign participation, yesterday saw one of the lowest trading volumes of the year; however, the BIST 100 index's close above the 9,910 interim resistance level is a positive signal. In the evening, the information that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which will hold its last meeting of the year today, plans to hold eight meetings in 2025 triggered buying activity in the December futures contract of XU030 during the evening session on VIOP. This was driven by the perception that the initial rate cuts could be sizable. We expect this optimism to continue on the BIST this morning. As we mentioned in our morning note yesterday, with the uncertainty surrounding the minimum wage resolved and expectations for the rate-cutting cycle strengthening, we anticipate the BIST 100 index to move towards the 10,100–10,300 range. Our 12-month index target remains at 13,900, as highlighted in our 2025 Outlook Report. The highlight of today’s agenda is the MPC's interest rate decision, set to be announced at 2:00 PM. We expect a 150 basis point rate cut, although the likelihood of a larger cut (250 basis points) has increased. Either scenario is expected to be supportive for the BIST. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 259 basis points.