Strategy Note - 2025 Outlook

We begin 2025 under the shadow of numerous uncertainties. The policies to be implemented during the Trump 2.0 era in the US and their global impacts are expected to leave a significant mark on the year. In Turkey, key macroeconomic developments such as the monetary policies of the Central Bank of Turkey, growth performance, management of external financing needs, and geopolitical events in the neighboring regions will be closely monitored. We anticipate a year characterized by continued declines in inflation, slight deceleration in growth, and a reduction in the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP despite its high nominal level.

Our 12-month target for the BIST 100 Index is 13,900, suggesting a potential return of 45% in index terms. This potential exceeds our year-end inflation expectation of 28% for 2025. Among the companies for which we foresee outperformance, the average potential return is 48%, while the average potential return for our Model Portfolio is 50%.

With our 2025 Outlook report, we are revising our Model Portfolio. We are adding İşbank, Yapı Kredi Bank, TAV Airports, and Turkcell to the portfolio while removing Lider Faktoring. Turkish Airlines, Coca Cola İçecek, Ford Otosan, Mavi Giyim, Migros, Teknosa, and Tüpraş will remain in the portfolio.

in 2025, may your bow be clear, your rudder be steady, and the wind be at your ease !