Strategy Note - 2026 Outlook

2026 Outlook – Clouds are Dispersing

As we enter 2026, we are optimistic that central banks will continue to cut interest rates and that growth forecasts will be revised upwards. Although global investment themes are based on the depreciation of the dollar, concerns about the US's tendency to raise tariff barriers have eased. In Europe, meanwhile, support for regional economies through increased defence spending is growing. In Asia, however, we are entering a period of uncertainty where the effectiveness of stimulus measures and regional disparities are being questioned.

Our BIST 100 index target, calculated based on the target values of the companies in our valuation scope and their potential impact on the index, points to a level of 15,200 over a 12-month horizon and a potential return of 34% on the index. This potential is above the 23% annual CPI rate we forecast for the coming year and is close to the rates we found in our simulations of average net deposit returns achievable during this period. In contrast, the average potential return for companies where we forecast above-index returns is around 50%, remaining significantly higher.

As we enter 2026, we are removing Teknosa from our Model Portfolio following a review and redesign, and adding Sabancı Holding, Astor and MLP Care instead. The following companies remain in our Model Portfolio: Turkish Airlines, Coca-Cola Beverages, Ford Otomotiv, Mavi Giyim, Migros, TAV Airports, Turkcell, Tüpraş, Garanti and Isbank.