Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Following the continued sell-off in global markets yesterday, we are seeing a rebound in risk appetite this morning, supported by stronger-than-expected inventory data in the US, a decline in oil prices, and US 10-year Treasury yields falling below 5%. US and European futures, as well as Asian equities, are broadly trading higher. The Fed’s interest rate decision, expectations, the statement, and accompanying remarks will be released tonight and will be closely watched. Just two weeks ago, markets were debating whether the Fed would raise rates in December or at its January or March 2027 meetings. Over the past week, however, expectations have shifted rapidly, with markets now pricing in a rate hike from the Fed tonight, followed by two or three additional hikes. This shift carries various risks for a wide range of assets, including emerging market assets, commodities, technology stocks, and US Treasuries. Therefore, the messages from the Fed at 21:00 Türkiye time will be highly critical. Domestically, the moderation in expectations for a rate cut by the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee, at a time when major central banks are raising rates or are expected to do so, triggered a notable sell-off in Borsa Istanbul yesterday, led by banks. The BIST 100 Index declined 2.4% to 13,892 points. The top five stocks contributing positively to the index were DSTKF, ASELS, TKFEN, PATEK, and ENERY, while BIMAS, AKBNK, THYAO, YKBNK, and KTLEV had the most negative impact. The stocks that have stood out with consistent fund inflows over the past week are AEFES, GLYHO, and ISDMR. From a technical perspective, 13,800 and 13,690 can be monitored as support levels for the BIST 100 Index, while 14,000 and 14,220 stand out as resistance levels. On today’s agenda, housing sales in Türkiye, industrial production in Europe, and retail sales in the US will be closely monitored in addition to the Fed decision. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 230 basis points.