Daily Bulletin

Good morning. While oil prices remain elevated, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are also trading above 5% for the first time since 2023. However, during that period, yields remained above 5% for only one day (October 23, 2023), after which the 10-year yield declined from around 5% to 3.8% over two months, despite the Fed policy rate remaining at around 5.5% for an extended period. During the same period, the S&P 500 rallied from around 4,100 to approximately 5,200. Given the geopolitical risks, pressure on valuations and expectations of Fed rate hikes in the current environment, we consider the likelihood of a similar scenario recurring to be very low. We believe U.S. Treasury yields may remain elevated, which would continue to weigh on U.S. equities as well as global equity markets. Turning to this morning, U.S. and European equity futures, along with Asian markets, are broadly trading lower. In Borsa Istanbul, meanwhile, foreign selling and a loss of daily momentum stand out, albeit on relatively low trading volumes, while the BIST 100 Index declined 1.6% yesterday to 14,235 points. The stocks contributing positively to the index were DSTKF, SASA, TUPRS, RALYH and PGSUS, while ASELS, KTLEV, ASTOR, BIMAS and ODINE were the main negative contributors. Over the past week, the stocks standing out with consistent net inflows were PGSUS, ISCTR, TTKOM, AEFES, GLYHO and SOKM, as well as relatively smaller-cap names KUYAS, BAHKM, DERHL and KLYPV. From a technical perspective, 14,180 and 14,000–14,050 can be monitored as support levels for the BIST 100 Index, while 14,350 and 14,500–14,550 stand out as resistance levels. On today’s agenda, Treasury auctions and the budget balance will be monitored domestically, while the external calendar remains relatively light. The Fed meeting starts today, with the rate decision due tomorrow at 21:00. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads are starting the day at 230 basis points.