Daily Bulletin

Good morning, and happy Monday. Following U.S. President Trump's announcement that attacks on Iran have ceased and that negotiations will resume starting today, we are seeing a notable decline in oil prices, while U.S. and European equity futures are trading nearly 1% higher. Asian markets are showing a mixed performance due to the appreciation of the Japanese yen; however, overall, global risk sentiment is starting the week on a positive note. Borsa Istanbul ended Friday's session at 13,458, up 1.24%, supported by strong buying interest into the close. The five biggest positive contributors to the index were ODINE, TUPRS, BIMAS, YKBNK, and ASELS, while DSTKF, TRALT, TCELL, SKBNK, and ODAS weighed most heavily on performance. Over the past week, HALKB, GESAN, CRDFA, ANHYT, ANSGR, ENJSA, and GRSEL have stood out with consistent fund inflows. After holding above the 13,000–13,200 support zone on Thursday and Friday last week and rebounding from these levels, the BIST 100 Index may target the 13,650 and 13,750 resistance levels in the near term, provided it maintains prices above 13,500. On today's economic calendar, domestic markets will focus on Türkiye's July inflation data. We expect monthly CPI to increase by 1.8%, resulting in annual CPI easing from 32.1% to 31.8%. While we continue to see upside risks to inflation, our base case is for annual CPI to remain broadly unchanged in August, decline toward 30% in September on favorable base effects, and move toward 28% by year-end. Today's international agenda also includes PMI data releases across Europe and the United States, while U.S. employment figures will be the key focus later this week. Türkiye's 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 237 basis points.