Daily Bulletin

Good morning. As widely expected, the Fed left its policy rate unchanged at the 3.50%–3.75% range. However, for the first time since 2016, the decision was approved by a 9–3 vote, with three members voting in favor of a rate hike, reinforcing expectations that the possibility of a future rate increase has gained traction. Fed Chair Warsh's remarks were also interpreted as broadly hawkish. Combined with President Trump's renewed threats toward Iran, these developments triggered a broad sell-off in U.S. equities, with major indices losing as much as 2% yesterday. This morning, U.S. futures are attempting a modest rebound, while European futures remain in negative territory and Asian markets are trading mixed. Borsa Istanbul ended yesterday's session down 1.4% at 13,501, falling below the critical 13,600 support level that we have been highlighting for some time. As noted yesterday, this break opens the door for a potential pullback toward the 13,000–13,200 range. On the upside, 13,600 and 13,770 will be the key resistance levels to monitor in any recovery attempt. The stocks contributing positively to the index yesterday were TUPRS, PASEU, DSTKF, TOASO, and TAVHL, while AKBNK, ODINE, ASELS, ISCTR, and THYAO were the main negative contributors. Over the past week, TUPRS, CRDFA, ENJSA, TKFEN, ANHYT, and ANSGR have continued to stand out with consistent fund inflows. The 2026 second-quarter earnings season is underway. Among the latest results, GARAN stood out after reporting net income approximately 8% above market expectations, while CWENE and BIGCH delivered strong results according to our evaluation framework. On the other hand, we found the earnings released by TOASO and ARCLK to be weaker than expected. Today's macroeconomic calendar is particularly busy. In Türkiye, investors will monitor the Economic Confidence Index, employment data, CBRT foreign exchange reserves, and foreign investor transactions. In Europe, attention will focus on the Bank of England's interest rate decision, confidence indicators, GDP growth, and the unemployment rate. In the U.S., GDP and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Price Index will be released. Türkiye's 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 240 basis points.