Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Mutual threats between the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate. Front-month oil futures have climbed above $100 per barrel, while actively traded contracts are approaching $95. U.S. and European equity futures are trading broadly flat, while Asian markets are showing a mixed performance. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that it will continue to monitor incoming developments. Market attention will now shift from geopolitical risks to next Wednesday evening's Federal Reserve policy decision and accompanying statement. Domestically, market momentum remains weak. The BIST 100 Index declined 0.4% yesterday to close at 14,077. The biggest positive contributors to the index were ASELS, EREGL, ODINE, ASTOR, and KUYAS, while BIMAS, TCELL, THYAO, KCHOL, and AKSEN weighed most heavily on performance. Over the past week, TUPRS, SASA, YKBNK, SISE, and TKFEN have stood out with consistent fund inflows. From a technical perspective, the 14,200–14,250 range remains the key resistance area, while 13,900–14,000 continues to serve as the primary support zone for the BIST 100 Index. News that the U.S. Department of State, in a letter sent to Congress, stated that Türkiye has not yet met the legal requirements to rejoin the F-35 program, emphasizing that F-35 deliveries cannot proceed unless the S-400 issue is resolved, together with the inclusion of Türkiye among the 60 countries subject to the latest U.S. tariff measures, could create modest downward pressure on Borsa Istanbul at the open today. In addition, given the ongoing geopolitical tensions, we expect investors' risk appetite to remain limited ahead of the weekend. Nevertheless, the index may continue its efforts to hold around the 14,000 level. On today's economic calendar, PMI data from Europe and the United States will be the primary focus. Finally, Türkiye's 5-year CDS spread starts the day at 245 basis points.