Daily Bulletin

Good morning. While tensions and mutual threats between the United States and Iran continue, oil prices remain above the $90 level. The latest earnings reports released in the U.S. have also been broadly weak. As a result, global risk appetite remains limited, with U.S. and European futures as well as Asian equity markets generally trading lower. The BIST 100 Index rose 1.2% yesterday to close at 14,138 points. The five companies contributing most positively to the index were ASELS, BIMAS, DSTKF, TUPRS, and ODINE, while the largest negative contributors were SKBNK, EUPWR, KRDMD, EFOR, and GESAN. Companies attracting consistent capital inflows over the past week include AKSEN, THYAO, TUPRS, PETKM, and MGROS. For the BIST 100, the 14,200–14,250 range continues to serve as a key resistance zone, while the 13,900–14,000 range remains an important support area. On today’s agenda, the CBRT Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and the ECB interest rate decision stand out. No policy changes are expected from either central bank. Following this meeting, the CBRT may gradually resume one-week repo auctions; however, we believe policymakers will first monitor developments in oil prices and inflation dynamics. Within this framework, we maintain our expectation that overnight funding rates will converge toward the policy rate of 37% from the current 40% level in a very gradual manner. We also maintain our year-end policy rate forecast of 35%. Finally, Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads begin the day at 239 basis points.