Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk sentiment is negative this morning. Geopolitical tensions escalated again after Iran announced over the weekend that it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. continued its military strikes against Iran. Although the U.S. stated that it does not recognize Iran's decision and that the strait remains open to vessels engaged in lawful transit, the market's focus will now shift from official statements to whether maritime traffic continues uninterrupted in practice. Against this backdrop, Brent crude is up around 4% this morning, trading above $79 per barrel, reigniting concerns over inflation and interest rates through higher energy prices. U.S. and European equity futures are trading lower, while Asian markets are broadly under selling pressure. In Türkiye, Borsa Istanbul witnessed broad-based buying on Friday, with the exception of the banking sector. The BIST 100 Index rose 1.53% to close at 14,321 points, supported by approximately TRY 1.3 billion in net inflows and improving trading volumes, reinforcing the positive momentum. Throughout last week, TUPRS, ASTOR, BIMAS, TRALT, EREGL, EUPWR, and DSTKF stood out in terms of consistent fund inflows. From a technical perspective, we view the 14,000–13,900 range as the first key support zone, while the 13,600–13,750 band remains the major support area should selling pressure intensify. On the upside, the 14,450–14,500 range continues to serve as the first important resistance zone. Despite Friday's positive momentum, the increase in geopolitical risks over the weekend may weigh on market sentiment at today's opening. On today's economic calendar, domestic markets will focus on Türkiye's May current account balance and retail sales data, while globally, developments regarding shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and movements in oil prices will remain in focus. Later this week, attention will turn to U.S. CPI data and major bank earnings tomorrow, followed by U.S. retail sales on Thursday. Borsa Istanbul will be closed on Wednesday, July 15, in observance of Democracy and National Unity Day. Finally, Türkiye's 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 226 basis points.