Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated. However, after front-month Brent crude oil futures tested the $80 level two days ago, prices have eased back to around $76. U.S. and European equity futures are broadly flat this morning following yesterday’s gains, while Asian markets are trading firmly higher across the region. A notable development comes from UBS, which has upgraded its outlook for European equities, citing continued artificial intelligence investments, resilient bank earnings, and expectations for stronger corporate profitability. The bank now forecasts nearly a 20% EUR-denominated return for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index over the next 18 months. Turning to Borsa Istanbul, investor concerns triggered by the recent warnings from MSCI and S&P Dow Jones Indices continue to weigh on sentiment. Yesterday, we discussed both the quantitative and qualitative implications of these developments on the Tacirler Investment YouTube channel. The BIST 100 Index declined 0.6% yesterday to close at 14,105. The stocks contributing the most positively to the index were TUPRS, THYAO, KTLEV, TRALT, and SASA, while ASELS, BIMAS, ASTOR, SKBNK, and ISCTR exerted the largest negative impact. Over the past week, TUPRS, EREGL, HALKB, EUPWR, and TKFEN have stood out with consistent capital inflows. From a technical perspective, the index has fallen below its 50-day exponential moving average. While we expect a short-term rebound this morning, we continue to see room for a medium-term pullback toward the 13,600–13,800 range. On the upside, 14,300 stands out as the first resistance level. We maintain our 12-month BIST 100 target of 19,800. We also note that the consensus target derived from domestic and international institutional forecasts has recently moved closer to our projection. On today's economic calendar, industrial production data will be released in Türkiye, while the global agenda remains relatively quiet. Finally, Türkiye's 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 227 basis points.