Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Following yesterday’s much weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, market expectations for the Fed’s next rate hike have shifted further into the future, with some commentators even beginning to discuss the possibility of a rate cut. In our view, the current inflation outlook does not support a rate cut. However, a postponement of further tightening remains a plausible scenario, which would likely provide support for both precious metals and equity markets. That said, we believe the upside in precious metals may remain limited. U.S. equity markets will be closed today, while U.S. and European futures, together with Asian equities, are trading broadly in positive territory this morning. We also expect a positive opening for Borsa Istanbul. The BIST 100 Index advanced 0.7% yesterday to reach the 14,450 resistance level. The largest positive contributors to the index were ASELS, ASTOR, KTLEV, DSTKF and TUPRS, while BIMAS, MGROS, ENERY, PASEU and ENKAI weighed most heavily on performance. Over the past week, EREGL, TUPRS, KCHOL, TCELL and HALKB have stood out with consistent fund inflows. From a technical perspective, the 14,600–14,660 and 14,800–14,900 ranges will be monitored as key resistance levels, while 14,370 and 14,250 serve as the main support levels. On today's economic calendar, the June inflation data in Türkiye will be the primary focus. We expect monthly CPI to increase by 1.0%, bringing annual inflation down to 32.1% from 32.6%. We anticipate a second consecutive month of negative monthly inflation in the food category, although prices could begin to rise again in July. We forecast annual CPI to ease to around 30% during the summer months, decline further to 29% in the autumn, and end the year at approximately 28%. However, the risks to our year-end forecast remain tilted to the upside. In Europe, the services PMI data will be closely monitored. Finally, Türkiye’s 5-year CDS spread starts the day at 222 basis points.