Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Despite easing geopolitical risks and the decline in oil prices, global equity markets are under pressure this morning as expectations for Fed rate hikes have been brought forward and growth forecasts have been revised downward. U.S. equity markets will be closed today; however, futures contracts are trading this morning and remain in negative territory. European futures and Asian markets are also generally weaker. The market’s pricing of the Fed’s first rate hike has now shifted forward to as early as September, effectively within the next two meetings. We would note that this change in expectations is creating an increasingly strong headwind for equities as well as commodities such as gold and silver. In contrast, positive momentum continues in Borsa Istanbul. The BIST 100 Index advanced 2.8% yesterday to 14,827 points, supported by capital inflows and foreign investor buying activity. From a technical perspective, the index has also started to display a more constructive outlook. The five stocks contributing most positively to yesterday’s index performance were ASELS, DSTKF, AKBNK, BIMAS, and ASTOR, while TUPRS, EUPWR, GESAN, ENERY, and MIATK were the largest negative contributors. Over the past week, stocks attracting consistent capital inflows have included ASELS, KCHOL, SAHOL, TCELL, AKBNK, TRALT, ISCTR, SASA, KRDMD, YKBNK, EKGYO, PGSUS, and EREGL. It is also noteworthy that both the number of companies receiving regular inflows and the quality of these names continue to improve. From a technical standpoint, the 15,000–15,200 range represents the first resistance zone, while 14,700 and 14,400 should be monitored as key support levels. On today’s economic calendar, domestic investors will focus on Real Sector Confidence and Capacity Utilization data, while no major international data releases are scheduled. Finally, Türkiye’s 5-year CDS premiums begin the day at 219 basis points.