Daily Bulletin

Good morning. As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%–3.75% range. However, both the policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks were significantly more hawkish than anticipated. While the Fed revised its inflation projections upward, growth forecasts were adjusted slightly lower. The updated rate projections from Fed members also revealed notable upward revisions. Although a rate hike is not yet the consensus expectation among policymakers, the projected policy rate path is approximately 50 basis points higher compared to previous meetings. In addition, the Fed appears set to provide more limited forward guidance going forward, which is likely to reduce the level of support markets receive in terms of policy direction. In summary, the Fed's message is negative for markets. However, the signing of the U.S.–Iran agreement, even in electronic form, is providing support to risk assets, while the decline in oil prices continues. U.S. equity futures are trading higher, European futures are slightly lower, and Asian markets are broadly positive. The BIST 100 Index declined by 0.5% yesterday to close at 14,421 points. The five stocks making the strongest positive contribution to the index were DSTKF, KTLEV, AKBNK, YKBNK, and TUPRS, while ASTOR, THYAO, EREGL, TCELL, and KCHOL weighed most heavily on performance. Over the past week, stocks attracting consistent capital inflows have included THYAO, SASA, EREGL, AKBNK, EKGYO, YKBNK, TRHOL, EFOR, and TRALT. From a technical perspective, the 14,600–14,650 range may be monitored as the first resistance zone, while the 14,250–14,400 area stands out as the initial support region. On today’s calendar, investors will focus on the CBRT’s reserve data and weekly foreign investor flow statistics. Economic data releases in Europe and the U.S. are relatively limited. Finally, Türkiye’s 5-year CDS premium starts the day at 219 basis points.