Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global markets are starting the new week on a positive note, supported by optimism surrounding a potential agreement between the United States and Iran. The official agreement is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, June 19. A decline of up to 4% in oil prices, along with gains in U.S. and European futures and Asian equities, suggests that investors are increasingly confident that a deal will be reached. Meanwhile, expectations for the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike have been pushed back from December 2026 to April 2027, providing support for gold and silver prices. In Türkiye, the BIST 100 Index rose 1.4% on Friday to close at 13,938 points. The five stocks contributing most positively to the index were AKBNK, YKBNK, THYAO, SAHOL, and ISCTR, while ASTOR, ASELS, RALYH, TUPRS, and PASEU exerted the greatest negative impact. Over the past week, consistent fund inflows have been observed in AKBNK, SAHOL, YKBNK, EREGL, ISCTR, GARAN, EKGYO, and TCELL. For this morning, we expect the BIST 100 to move toward the 14,100–14,200 resistance zone. A breakout above this range could open the way toward the 14,450–14,650 target area. We also expect the XBANK Banking Index to continue outperforming the broader BIST 100 for some time, supported by declining CDS premiums and expectations that June inflation could come in close to 1%. Such an outcome may increase the likelihood of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) gradually lowering its Weighted Average Funding Cost from the 40% range toward 37% ahead of the July 23 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. In addition, the strong fund inflows and foreign investor purchases observed on Friday may continue in the near term. On today’s economic calendar, investors will be monitoring industrial production data from Türkiye, Europe, and the United States. Later in the week, attention will turn to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, chaired for the first time by Kevin Warsh, along with the accompanying policy statement and guidance. Finally, Türkiye’s five-year CDS premium starts the day at 229 basis points.