Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Oil prices have retreated below the $90 level following comments from U.S. President Trump suggesting that an agreement with Iran could be signed in the very near term. These remarks have also supported strong buying interest across global equity markets. It should be noted, however, that Iran has not yet confirmed the existence of such an agreement. U.S. and European futures, as well as Asian equity markets, are trading firmly higher this morning. We also expect a positive opening in Borsa Istanbul and believe that the BIST 100 Index may break above the 13,600–13,900 consolidation range that has been in place for some time, paving the way for a move above the 14,000 level. The 14,100–14,200 range may serve as a key resistance area in the near term. Meanwhile, 12-month BIST 100 target projections have shifted toward the 19,200–19,400 range. These targets imply an upside potential of nearly 40% for the index. While a decline in geopolitical tensions remains important for achieving these levels, developments on the domestic political front will also continue to be closely monitored. Yesterday, the stocks making the strongest positive contribution to the index were ASTOR, SASA, KTLEV, TCELL, and AKBNK. On the other hand, RALYH, MAGEN, THYAO, KUYAS, and TOASO were the largest negative contributors. Over the past week, EREGL, DOAS, FROTO, ALARK, ISDMR, and SAHOL have stood out due to consistent fund inflows. On today’s economic calendar, the Current Account Balance and the CBRT Market Participants Survey (MPS) will be closely followed domestically. We expect the 12-month ahead inflation forecast in the survey to remain below 24%. The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision yesterday also reflected expectations that the disinflation process will continue in the coming period. The trajectory of inflation expectations will therefore remain critical in determining whether the CBRT can resume its rate-cutting cycle after July. In Europe, investor confidence indicators will be in focus. Finally, Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads are starting the day at 240 basis points.