Daily Bulletin

Good morning. We are currently navigating a market environment in which domestic political developments have moved to the forefront. The “absolute nullity” ruling concerning the Republican People's Party created significant pressure on TRY-denominated assets yesterday, and we do not believe this pressure will reverse in the short term. The decisions expected from the Financial Stability Committee meeting chaired by Mehmet Şimşek at 08:30 this morning may help limit some of the potential downside impact; however, risk appetite is likely to remain subdued ahead of the extended holiday period. In the futures market, volatility is expected to remain elevated following a record TRY 3.6 billion margin call in VIOP. The BIST 100 Index declined 6% yesterday to 13,163 points, falling below the 13,200 / 13,300 support zone. From a technical perspective, the 12,400 / 12,500 support region is critically important. This area corresponds both to the lowest level tested during the Iran–US conflict and to the 200-day exponential moving average. A downside break below this threshold could open room for a retracement toward the 11,000 / 11,500 range. In the event of a rebound, the first resistance zone stands at 13,500 / 13,700. On today’s agenda, domestic political developments will remain the primary focus. On the macro side, markets will monitor foreign trade balance data, real sector confidence, capacity utilization, weekly foreign investor flows, and consumer confidence indicators in the United States. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 261 basis points.