Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to withdraw from OPEC and the Russia-led OPEC+ coalition has pushed oil prices higher while triggering a sell-off in global equity markets. The UAE’s decision is driven by its intention to independently determine production levels in pursuit of its 5 million barrels per day target, free from OPEC/OPEC+ constraints. Although this development had been anticipated for some time, its timing came as a surprise; however, we observe that its negative impact on global markets has not persisted into this morning. The UAE’s statement that it will continue contributing to market stability—albeit outside the OPEC/OPEC+ framework—has also helped stabilize pricing. U.S. and European futures, along with Asian markets, are starting the day on a positive note. Following yesterday’s 1.8% decline to 14,329, we expect a rebound in Borsa Istanbul this morning. YKBNK’s 1Q26 net profit, which significantly exceeded expectations, along with AKBNK’s results—broadly in line but somewhat positive in underlying details—may support the XBANK Banking Index. Yesterday, the top positive contributors to the index were ASTOR, RALYH, EUPWR, PETKM, and FENER, while DSTKF, BIMAS, AKBNK, TUPRS, and SASA weighed on the index. Over the past week, notable inflows have been observed in ASTOR, KARSN, MANAS, CANTE, HTTBT, and SURGY. From a technical perspective, the 14,200–14,250 range stands as the first support zone, while 14,450 and 14,600–14,620 can be monitored as resistance levels. On today’s agenda, domestic data includes employment and economic confidence indices; in the U.S., housing and growth-related indicators will be followed, along with the Fed rate decision at 21:00. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 246 basis points.