Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Tensions between the United States and Iran persist. As the two-week ceasefire period expires, oil prices climbed back toward $100 last night following Iran’s decision not to participate in negotiations in Pakistan. Subsequently, with the U.S. extending the ceasefire “indefinitely,” prices are again hovering around $93 this morning. U.S. futures are trading notably higher, European futures are slightly negative, and Asian markets are mixed. Despite the volatility observed last evening, we expect a positive opening in Borsa Istanbul this morning, supported by oil prices being in line with levels seen at yesterday’s close and the strength in U.S. futures. From a technical perspective, resistance levels at 14,450–14,500 and 14,610 can be monitored, while the 14,000–14,200 range stands as a key support zone. The top positive contributors to the index yesterday were DSTKF, KTLEV, ASTOR, EREGL, and EFOR, while ASELS, AKBNK, FROTO, TCELL, and SAHOL weighed on the index. Over the past week, notable inflows have been observed in ISCTR, EREGL, PETKM, ULKER, and MGROS. On today’s agenda, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) rate decision will be in focus at 14:00. We anticipate that the one-week repo auction rate, currently at 37%, may be raised to 40%, aligning with the effective funding rate. This could also imply an increase in the upper band of the interest rate corridor—the overnight lending rate—to 43%, providing additional flexibility to support the Turkish lira. We expect funding to continue at 40% with a shift from overnight to one-week funding. However, recent market developments also keep the possibility of no rate change or a more limited hike on the table. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 234 basis points.