Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Uncertainty persists regarding whether negotiations between the United States and Iran will continue. Iran is putting forward the removal of the U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition, while the U.S. side is requiring an agreement before lifting the blockade. Oil prices are pricing in the possibility of a deal, with recent transactions occurring near the $90 level. Following yesterday’s declines, U.S. and European futures, along with Asian markets, are generally trading higher this morning. In Borsa Istanbul, after an approximately 400-point rally on Friday, only about 100 points were given back yesterday. As long as renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions does not materialize and oil prices do not climb above $100, we expect pullbacks in BIST to remain limited. Despite the sell-off in March and foreign outflows, the cumulative inflows that have been monitored for a prolonged period are expected to continue supporting Borsa Istanbul. The BIST 100 Index declined by 0.7% yesterday to close at 14,485. The top positive contributors were EREGL, KTLEV, ASTOR, RALYH, and DSTKF, while ASELS, AKBNK, BIMAS, KLRHO, and TCELL weighed on the index. Over the past week, notable inflows have been observed in PETKM, TTKOM, FROTO, and ULKER. From a technical perspective, the 14,550–14,610 range stands as the first resistance zone and may be tested today, with intraday developments likely to be decisive for a breakout. We believe the current momentum has the capacity to carry the BIST 100 Index toward the 15,000 level within a 2–4 week horizon. Key support levels are located at 14,000–14,200 and 13,800. Today’s agenda includes real sector confidence and capacity utilization domestically, while in the U.S., retail sales and pending home sales will be monitored. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 230 basis points.