Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Reports that the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a two-week ceasefire are providing a very strong boost to global markets this morning. Oil prices are down by as much as 20%, while U.S. and European futures are up between 2.0% and 5.0%, with similarly strong gains across Asian equities. We believe it is important to remain cautious regarding the durability of the ceasefire and the prospects for achieving a lasting peace during this period. Therefore, we think risk exposure should be increased in a measured and controlled manner. In the BIST 100 Index, a gap had formed in the 13,450–13,550 range following the sell-off triggered by the initial attacks on February 28. This gap area, which is approximately 4% above current levels, may be tested today. However, we believe that a move beyond this region would require stronger conviction that the ceasefire will hold and that a lasting peace can be achieved. Looking at yesterday’s session, the BIST 100 Index declined by 1.5% to 12,921 points. The top five positive contributors to the index were ASELS, TUPRS, RALYH, PETKM, and MAGEN, while EREGL, THYAO, TCELL, AKBNK, and YKBNK weighed most negatively on the index. Stocks that have attracted consistent fund inflows over the past week include BIMAS, ASELS, GEREL, AYGAZ, MIATK, and ALKLC. From a technical perspective, the 13,450–13,550 range stands out as the main resistance zone, while 13,200 and 13,320 can be monitored as intermediate resistance levels. Key support levels are seen at 12,800 and 12,620. Today’s macro agenda is relatively quiet. Producer prices and retail sales data in Europe will be monitored. Finally, Türkiye’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 284 basis points. No meaningful decline has yet been observed in CDS spreads, although we believe this may materialize later in the session.