Daily Bulletin
Tacirler Investment
Good morning. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated; however, the fact that ceasefire conditions are being discussed more openly and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased is encouraging. On the other hand, continued threats targeting infrastructure facilities and the growing negative impact of the conflict-related costs on macro dynamics such as growth and inflation are preventing markets from showing a lasting relief rally. We also do not yet see a meaningful easing in oil prices. As a result, global risk appetite remains weak. In Borsa Istanbul, however, the positive divergence relative to global equity markets continues. The first increase in CBRT reserves since the beginning of the conflict, together with the continued stable performance of the Turkish lira, is also supporting this divergence. The BIST 100 Index rose 1.4% yesterday to close at 13,112. The five stocks that contributed the most positively to the index were ASELS, AKBNK, SAHOL, EREGL, and YKBNK, while the main negative contributors were KLRHO, AEFES, TABGD, AKSA, and TKFEN. Stocks that have stood out with consistent money inflows over the past week were GARAN, KTLEV, ALKLC, OTKAR, ENKAI, KUYAS, and HEDEF. From a technical perspective, it is positive that the index has broken above the descending channel resistance formed since the all-time high of 14,532 recorded on February 18, and that this breakout has now been confirmed, with yesterday’s close also marking the highest level of the past two weeks. That said, the fact that expectations for rate cuts from the PPK have been shelved for the time being limits the likelihood of the index retesting its previous highs in the near term. In the short term, 13,300 and the 13,450 / 13,550 band should be monitored as resistance levels, while 12,920 and 12,800 stand out as support levels. On today’s agenda, domestic Treasury auctions will be followed, while abroad, European PMI data and U.S. durable goods orders will be in focus. Türkiye 5-year CDS spreads start the day at 287 basis points.