Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The news flow regarding the war environment appears to be relatively calmer. Reports suggesting that Iran and Oman are working on a protocol for the joint control of traffic and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz are drawing attention. However, the reported strike on a bridge under construction in Iran, and Iran’s response by sharing a list of bridges in other countries across the region, continues to keep tensions elevated. US and European equity markets closed mixed yesterday, while futures are slightly negative this morning. Asian markets are also showing a similarly mixed picture. The BIST 100 Index rose 0.9% yesterday to close at 13,052. The top five positive contributors to the index were ASELS, BIMAS, ASTOR, DSTKF, and AKBNK, while the biggest negative contributors were KLRHO, EREGL, KCHOL, FROTO, and KUYAS. Stocks that have stood out with consistent money inflows over the past week include BIMAS, GARAN, THYAO, TCELL, TAVHL, ULKER, OYAKC, and ISFIN. From a technical perspective, the index’s break above the descending channel resistance drawn from its all-time high of 14,532 reached on February 18, and the confirmation of this breakout, are quite positive. In the near term, 13,300 may be monitored as an intermediate resistance level, while the 13,450–13,550 range stands out as the main resistance zone. Support levels are seen at 12,900 and 12,620. On today’s domestic agenda, March inflation data will be in focus. We expect monthly CPI inflation to come in lower at 2.1%, compared to the January and February figures. Despite the rise in fuel prices following the war, the impact on March inflation is likely to remain limited due to the 75% fuel price smoothing mechanism. More visible effects may be seen in April. On the positive side, the easing in food inflation is supportive. US markets are closed today for a holiday, although nonfarm payrolls data will still be released. Turkey’s 5-year CDS starts the day at 286 basis points.