Daily Bulletin

Good morning. As Middle East-focused tensions persist, the Houthis in Yemen becoming involved in the conflict, rising expectations of a ground operation, the absence of the widely rumored weekend ceasefire, and the continuation of mutual attacks are all continuing to push oil prices higher. Gains of around 3–4% compared to Friday’s closing levels are also causing global equities to start the week on a weaker footing. U.S. and European futures are in negative territory, while selling pressure continues across Asia. In the U.S., major indices slipping below their 200-day moving averages has opened up an area where selling could accelerate. Although there is some divergence across European and Asian markets, the broader picture remains similar. Borsa Istanbul has so far remained relatively resilient, with more limited losses during this process; however, weakness is also increasing there day by day. Due to the continued rise in oil prices, we expect a weak start to the week for BIST. The BIST 100 Index fell 0.23% on Friday to close at 12,698, with the top five positive contributors to the index being EREGL, KTLEV, RALYH, DSTKF, and KCHOL, while ASELS, CCOLA, SASA, TRALT, and EKGYO were the main negative contributors. Over the past week, the stocks that stood out with consistent money inflows were KCHOL, THYAO, ALKLC, EREGL, and AKSGY. From a technical perspective, the 12,400 / 12,500 range can be monitored as support, while the 12,800 / 12,900 zone stands out as resistance. On today’s agenda, economic confidence indices in Türkiye and Europe, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the U.S., and remarks by Fed Chair Powell will be in focus. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS premiums are starting the day at 307 basis points. A renewed move above the 300-bps level in CDS could create additional pressure on the XBANK Banking Index.