Daily Bulletin

Good morning. We are in an environment where reciprocal ceasefire terms are being floated between the US and Iran, but formal negotiations have not yet begun and geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Due to the contract rollover, active oil contracts are trading around USD 98–100 per barrel, while we are seeing gains of 0.70% to 1.5% across all maturities compared to yesterday. Equity markets in the US and Europe closed higher yesterday, but all futures are in negative territory this morning. Asian markets are also broadly under pressure. In Borsa Istanbul, despite an intraday rebound toward 13,000 yesterday, the BIST 100 closed at 12,964. The top five positive contributors to the index, which gained 0.26%, were BIMAS, ASTOR, THYAO, TAVHL, and KCHOL, while ASELS, TUPRS, CCOLA, PETKM, and KLRHO weighed most on the index. Over the past week, the stocks standing out with consistent fund inflows have been ASTOR, TTKOM, TAVHL, ENJSA, and MGROS. We expect a weak opening in BIST this morning. From a technical perspective, support bands can be monitored at 12,800 / 12,900 and 12,400 / 12,500, while resistance bands stand at 13,100 / 13,150 and 13,250 / 13,300. On today’s agenda, domestic markets will focus on the CBRT’s reserve data and foreign trading flows, while in the US weekly jobless claims will be monitored. We estimate that the CBRT’s gross FX reserves declined by USD 12.3 billion on a weekly basis to USD 177.5 billion. We also calculate that net FX reserves fell by USD 11.4 billion week-on-week to USD 57.4 billion. 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 283 basis points.