Daily Bulletin

On the 111th anniversary of the Çanakkale Naval Victory on March 18, 1915, we respectfully and gratefully remember Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and all of our heroic martyrs.

Good morning. An agreement between Türkiye and the Iraqi Central Government on oil flows to Ceyhan via the pipeline network is pushing oil prices back below the USD 100 mark. Following yesterday’s positive close in U.S. and European equities, futures on major indices are also in positive territory this morning. In Asia, the picture is generally mixed. Borsa Istanbul rose 2% yesterday. The BIST 100 Index climbed to 13,217, with ASELS, AKBNK, DSTKF, YKBNK and THYAO providing the strongest positive contribution, while KLRHO, TUPRS, ASTOR, EFOR and RALYH weighed on the index. Over the past week, the names standing out with consistent money inflows have been PETKM, ENJSA, THYAO, TURSG, YEOTK, CANTE, TSKB and KAPLM. From a technical perspective, the 13,450 / 13,550 region should be monitored as a key resistance area. This zone corresponds to the gap created after the first reports of direct military confrontation on February 28, and a move above it could be interpreted as a sign that market pricing related to the U.S./Israel-Iran war is being left behind. On the downside, 12,900 / 13,000 and 12,400 stand out as support levels. On today’s calendar, domestically, the MPC meeting summary will be in focus, while in Europe CPI data will be followed. In the U.S., PPI and factory orders will be monitored. At 21:00, markets will watch the Fed rate decision together with the Fed officials’ macroeconomic projections, followed by Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at 21:30. Despite U.S. President Trump’s calls for an “urgent rate cut,” markets are pricing in no change from the Fed today, and potentially not until the final quarter of the year. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS starts the day at 274 basis points. The recent easing in CDS, after a period of upward pressure driven by rising geopolitical risks, is also a positive development.