Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Pressure from geopolitical risks continues to weigh on global markets. Tensions around Iran remained elevated over the weekend, while reciprocal strikes targeting refinery facilities increased concerns over energy supply. The sharp rise in oil prices is weakening global risk appetite, while the weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is adding to growth concerns and, together with higher energy prices, bringing inflation risks back into focus. Against this backdrop, selling pressure came to the fore in U.S. and European markets on Friday, while Asian equities also started the week on a weak footing. As the new week begins, U.S. futures are down by around 2%, while European futures are also trading lower. Turning to the domestic market, we see pressure building in Borsa Istanbul in line with the weaker global risk sentiment. The BIST 100 index closed the week down 2.19% at 12,792, with selling pressure particularly pronounced in the banking sector. From a technical perspective, 12,700 and 12,550 stand out as key support levels for today, while the 12,900–13,000 range marks the first resistance area on the upside. On the domestic side, the main focus this week will be the CBRT’s rate decision to be announced on Thursday, March 12. We expect the policy rate to be kept unchanged at 37%. Although overshadowed by global developments, March 11 is the final reporting deadline for fourth-quarter consolidated financial statements. Today’s data calendar is quiet both domestically and globally. Over the course of the week, however, U.S. CPI and growth figures, Euro Area industrial production, and U.K. growth data will be the key releases to watch. Türkiye’s 5-year CDS premiums are starting the day at 258 basis points.