Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Despite the ongoing geopolitical tension, we are seeing signs of a rebound this morning across U.S. and European futures as well as Asian equities. The heavy flow of Middle East-related headlines is likely to continue and keep volatility elevated; however, the market is starting the day on a positive note. Since this positive tone is not backed by any concrete news flow or new development, we believe it reflects a technical rebound and that fragility remains in place. In Borsa Istanbul, the BIST 100 rose 1.1% yesterday to close back above 13,000 at 13,079. The top five positive contributors to the index were TUPRS, ASELS, DSTKF, AKBNK, and KTLEV, while the main negative contributors were KLRHO, BIMAS, THYAO, MGROS, and TCELL. Over the past week, stocks attracting consistent inflows have been ASELS, PETKM, ODINE, ASTOR, and GUNDG. On the BIST, the 12,800 / 12,900 range remains a critical support zone, while 13,200 and the 13,400 / 13,450 range may be monitored as resistance levels. The 4Q25 earnings season is still ongoing. So far, 58% of companies have reported, and 26% have posted year-on-year improvement, compared with 22% and 24% in 2Q25 and 3Q25, respectively. Despite geopolitical developments, upward revisions to target prices continue following corporate earnings releases. Based on current valuations, our 12-month BIST 100 target stands at 17,350, implying 33% upside potential at the index level. Once the 4Q results season is completed, the target range could move to 17,500 / 18,000, while in the second half of the year, with valuations rolling forward to end-2027, the 19,000 / 20,000 range could come into focus. However, given the sensitivity of these valuations to growth, inflation, and interest rates, a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions will be crucial for such levels to become relevant. On today’s agenda, growth data in Europe and employment figures in the U.S. will be in focus. Թուրքիայի 5-year CDS spreads are starting the day at 241 basis points.