Daily Bulletin

Good morning. As the U.S. and Israel intervene in Iran—backed by political and logistical support from France, the UK and Germany—and as Iran targets U.S. bases and certain assets in the region amid other ongoing conflicts and operations, geopolitical tensions are escalating. Reciprocal statements also suggest the process could be prolonged. The rise in oil prices is increasing global inflation risks and adding pressure on growth, prompting equity sell-offs, while we are seeing gains in precious metals and the U.S. dollar. U.S. and European futures start the new week down 0.90%–1.6%, and Asian equities are generally trading lower as well. In Borsa Istanbul, despite a positive open on Friday and net inflows based on active broker data, the market closed the day down 1.2%. The index fell to 13,718, with ASELS, EREGL, TUPRS, DSTKF and TRALT providing the largest positive contributions, while KLRHO, TCELL, SAHOL, AKBNK and BIMAS had the most negative impact. Over the past week, stocks drawing steady inflows include SASA, EREGL, ASTOR, TRALT, TRMET, GUBRF and ODINE. From a technical perspective, 13,400 and 13,000/13,300 can be monitored as support zones, while 14,000 and 14,200 stand out as resistance levels. On today’s domestic agenda, 4Q25 GDP growth data will be watched. We expect Turkey’s economy to post approximately 4% y/y growth in 4Q25, with any deviation more likely to be to the downside. We estimate full-year 2025 growth at 3.8%. In Europe and the U.S., PMI data will be in focus. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads start the day at 235 bps.