Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain the primary driver of global markets, with escalation risks still elevated. Recent reports from U.S.-based media outlets indicate an increasing buildup of ammunition and personnel in the region, alongside intensified speculation regarding a potential intervention against Iran in the near term. Discussions of operations that could extend over several weeks, coupled with the risk of Iranian retaliation and potential threats to U.S. bases across the region, are adding to market unease. Following yesterday’s sell-off in U.S. and European equities, futures are trading broadly flat this morning, while Asian markets remain under pressure. Borsa Istanbul also recorded a decline exceeding 3% yesterday, with losses accelerating as key support levels were sequentially breached during the session. However, the absence of notable capital outflows suggests that, despite price retracements, institutional investors are largely maintaining a measured and cautious stance. The top positive contributors to the index yesterday were PASEU, DSTKF, ENERY, GSRAY and ALTNY, while KLRHO, THYAO, AKBNK, ISCTR and YKBNK weighed most heavily on performance. Over the past week, FROTO, TOASO, TRALT, TCELL and MGROS have stood out with consistent capital inflows. From a technical perspective, support levels are monitored at 13,600; 13,400; and the 13,000–13,300 range, while resistance zones are seen at 14,000–14,200 and 14,400–14,550. Today’s macro agenda is dense. Although there are no major domestic data releases, the U.S. and Europe will publish PMI figures, alongside a series of key U.S. data on housing, consumption, growth and inflation. Remarks from Federal Reserve officials will also be closely watched. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 226 basis points.