Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Iran’s launch of military drills in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is raising geopolitical tensions once again. Given that approximately 20%–30% of global crude oil and LNG shipments transit through this المنطقة, supply concerns are resurfacing. Today, the second round of U.S.–Iran negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, as well as ongoing talks regarding the Russia–Ukraine war, are expected to remain in focus. News flow will continue to be closely monitored by the markets. Following yesterday’s closure of U.S. markets, futures contracts are trading in negative territory this morning. European futures and Asian equities also display a generally weak tone. In contrast, Borsa Istanbul maintains its positive momentum. The BIST 100 index rose by 1.1% yesterday to 14,339 points. The top positive contributors to the index were KLRHO, DSTKF, BIMAS, FROTO and AKBNK, while ASELS, ASTOR, OTKAR, ISCTR and HALKB weighed on performance. Over the past week, notable fund inflows were observed in TRALT, FROTO, THYAO, YKBNK, TTKOM and ALARK. From a technical perspective, the 14,800 / 15,000 zone remains the main resistance area, while 14,450 / 14,500 stands as an intermediate resistance band. Key support levels are located at 14,200, 14,110 and the 13,800 / 14,000 range. Our 12-month BIST 100 target, based on valuation metrics, stands at approximately 17,000. As only 12% of 4Q25 financials have been released so far, 30% of companies meet our criteria for year-on-year improvement—above the 22–24% range observed in 2Q25 and 3Q25. Profitability has generally exceeded expectations, which may lead to further upward revisions in target prices. On today’s agenda, domestic markets will follow Treasury auctions and the House Price Index, while in the U.S., the Empire State Manufacturing Index will be monitored. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premiums start the day at 215 basis points.