Daily Bulletin

Good morning. While protests and security interventions in Iran have led to a dramatic rise in casualties, statements from the US, the EU, and other parties that risk further escalation continue to come to the fore. Alongside these developments, oil prices have increased by 9% over the past week, returning to their highest levels of the last three months and gradually amplifying inflationary risks. Beyond the humanitarian dimension, this process should also be closely monitored from an economic and geopolitical perspective. For now, it can be noted that the rising tension has not yet had a pronounced impact on global markets or domestic assets; however, the increasing level of stress warrants close attention. This morning, US futures are trading weaker, European futures are flat, while Asian markets are generally positive. In Borsa Istanbul, the BIST 100 index tested above 12,400 for the first time ever yesterday, closing at 12,385 with a 1.07% daily gain and marking a new all-time closing high. The top positive contributors to the index were BIMAS, ASELS, TUPRS, AKBNK, and KTLEV, while KLRHO, THYAO, RALYH, GUBRF, and TAVHL weighed negatively on performance. Over the past week, BIMAS, TUPRS, and ASTOR have stood out with consistent capital inflows. From a technical perspective, the 12,500 and 12,800 / 13,000 levels can be monitored as resistance zones, while the 12,000 / 12,200 range stands out as a key support area. On today’s agenda, US PPI data, retail sales figures, and statements from Fed officials will be closely watched. Expectations for the first Fed rate cut have recently been pushed back to the July 29, 2026 meeting. Incoming data and commentary will be assessed within this framework. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads are starting the day at 218 basis points.