Daily Bulletin

Good morning. We are starting the day with U.S. President Trump’s statement announcing a “25% additional tariff on countries doing business with Iran.” This development should be interpreted less in terms of its direct economic impact and more as a signal of increased pressure on Iran and the continuation of geopolitical stress. Global markets are relatively calm this morning: U.S. futures are slightly negative, European futures are mildly positive, and Asian markets are trading with a broadly constructive tone. According to 11-month 2025 data, Iran accounts for 0.7% of Turkey’s imports and 1.1% of its exports. While these ratios are low, perception-driven pricing linked to the news flow may create limited pressure on Borsa Istanbul today. The BIST 100 Index closed yesterday at 12,255, up 0.44%, after testing the 12,378 level intraday. As previously highlighted, the index has entered the 12,200–12,500 range, which represents a consolidation zone where the recent upward momentum may decelerate. Above 12,500, the 12,800–13,000 resistance area can be monitored, although a period of consolidation beforehand appears likely. On the downside, the 12,000–12,200 band stands out as a key support zone. Yesterday, the top positive contributors to the index were BIMAS, TUPRS, ASELS, KCHOL, and ASTOR. Over the past week, stocks attracting consistent capital inflows included THYAO, TUPRS, TRALT, KCHOL, BIMAS, ASTOR, SAHOL, and ULKER. On today’s agenda, Turkey’s current account balance and U.S. CPI data will be in focus. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads are starting the day at 216 basis points.