Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed materialized. Chair Powell’s remarks were largely neutral, while the upward revision in growth projections and the downward adjustment in inflation expectations stood out. Market pricing currently points to the next Fed rate cut taking place in June 2026, though the probability of an earlier move remains on the table. U.S. equities closed higher yesterday, supported by a Fed stance that proved less hawkish than feared; however, U.S. futures are trading notably lower this morning after Oracle reported results below analysts’ expectations. European futures and Asian markets are also exhibiting a generally soft tone. At Borsa Istanbul, despite the market repeatedly testing the 11,300 / 11,320 band throughout the day, the XU100 index came under selling pressure after 16:00 and ended the session at 11,194, down 0.40%. The top five contributors to the index were ASELS, BIMAS, KUYAS, CCOLA, and PASEU, while the names that have attracted consistent inflows over the past week included ASELS, AKBNK, TCELL, SISE, TAVHL, and AEFES. From a technical standpoint, resistance levels are monitored at 11,300 / 11,320 and 11,500 / 11,600, while support stands at 11,150, 11,070, and the 10,900 / 11,000 zone. On today’s agenda, the CBRT’s interest-rate decision and accompanying statement will be in focus (14:00). We expect a 100-basis-point cut, bringing the policy rate down from 39.50% to 38.50%, though we do not rule out the possibility of a 150-basis-point reduction. At 14:30, the CBRT’s reserves data and weekly foreign-flows report will be monitored. In the U.S., weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories will be followed. Turkey’s 5-year CDS starts the day at 226 basis points.