Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk sentiment is starting the day on a softer footing ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision, scheduled for 22:00 local time. U.S. and European futures, along with Asian equities, are trading in negative territory. Despite a 0.44% gain yesterday, Borsa Istanbul exhibited a relatively flat performance with fading momentum compared to the previous session. The top five contributors to the index were ASELS, AKBNK, KUYAS, MAGEN and RALYH, while TUPRS, KONTR, TRALT, ASTOR and TOASO exerted the most downward pressure. Companies that have attracted consistent inflows over the past week include AKBNK, ISCTR, ASELS, SISE and SAHOL. From a technical perspective, the BIST 100’s key resistance zones are located at 11,200–11,250 and 11,500–11,600, while support levels stand at 11,070–11,150 and 10,900. On today’s domestic agenda, October industrial production data will be monitored. The monthly and annual growth rate of intermediate goods imports excluding gold and energy had stood at 4%, while the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) Türkiye Manufacturing PMI had eased from 46.7 to 46.5 in October, marking a three-month low. In line with these leading indicators, we expect seasonally adjusted monthly industrial production to remain in negative territory in October, while calendar-adjusted industrial production is likely to show an annual increase of around 3.8%. Externally, the market will focus on the Fed rate decision. Current pricing implies roughly a 90% probability of a 25 bps rate cut. The forward guidance regarding subsequent meetings will also be closely monitored. Turkey’s five-year CDS premiums begin the day at 226 basis points.