Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global markets are starting the day on a cautious yet mildly positive footing. In this critical week shaped by the upcoming Fed and CBRT decisions, the recovery attempt in U.S. futures is providing some support to risk appetite, while European and Asian markets display a mixed tone. The baseline scenario continues to be a 25 bps rate cut at Wednesday evening’s Fed meeting; however, we expect the market’s directional bias to be driven primarily by Powell’s guidance through economic projections and forward communication. On the Borsa Istanbul front, yesterday’s session delivered a notably strong performance. The BIST 100 index rose 1.65% to close at 11,189 points, with ASELS, SISE, BIMAS, AKBNK and TCELL delivering the most positive contributions, while DSTKF, SKBNK, GRTHO, HALKB and CWENE exerted pressure on the negative side. Ahead of the Fed decision, the combination of improving global risk appetite, strengthening rate-cut expectations following softer inflation, and easing CDS levels helped the index test the 11,200–11,250 resistance band. After touching the 11,250 intraday high, the market saw a slight pullback. In the absence of any significant news flow today, the index will likely oscillate within the 11,000–11,250 range while awaiting the Fed and CBRT announcements. In the short term, 11,250 stands as the first resistance; a decisive break above this threshold could reinvigorate buying interest. On the downside, 11,000 is the initial intraday support, followed by 10,900–10,890 and then 10,800 as layered support zones. The data calendar is quiet for the day. Domestically, Treasury auctions will be monitored. Turkey’s five-year CDS premiums start the day at 227 basis points.