Daily Bulletin

Good morning. We are entering a pivotal week marked by the Fed meeting on the global front and the MPC rate decision domestically. U.S. equity futures are starting the week with a bid, while European futures are softer; in Asia, despite weak growth data out of Japan, the picture remains mixed. On Borsa Istanbul, following a three-day loss of momentum, the market staged a rebound on Friday and closed the week just above the 11,000 level. Notably, both capital inflows and rising turnover stood out. The BIST 100 Index advanced 0.81%, with the top five positive contributors being AKBNK, ASELS, ISCTR, YKBNK and GARAN, while BIMAS, DSTKF, MGROS, AKSA and BRSAN exerted the most negative impact. Over the past week, SAHOL, ASELS, TOASO and GUBRF attracted consistent inflows. From a technical standpoint, the 10,700–10,800 support zone remains intact, while 10,870–10,900 can be monitored as an interim support area. The resistance band is located at 10,200–10,250. On today’s agenda, domestic Treasury auctions and the Sentix Investor Confidence index in Europe will be followed. Additionally, the third hearing regarding the university diploma case of Ekrem İmamoğlu — who has been suspended from his post as Mayor of Istanbul — will be monitored. News flow on this matter and its potential market implications may intensify around 11:00. Turkey’s five-year CDS premium starts the day at 231 bps. Here, it is worth highlighting that pricing for TRY-denominated assets has reached its most constructive zone since 2018, and that below 230 bps the XBANK Banking Index could find meaningful support not only from MPC expectations but also from CDS dynamics.