Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite is starting the week on a soft footing. There is no single dominant driver behind the move; weaker data out of Asia or protracted Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations can be cited as headline factors. After pricing in rate-cut expectations from the Fed throughout last week, equities are entering the new week with profit-taking. U.S. and European futures are trading in negative territory this morning, while Asian markets present a mixed picture. Borsa Istanbul continues to hover within the 10,800–10,900 range, with markets largely positioned for Wednesday’s inflation release. A subdued monthly CPI print would reinforce expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming MPC meeting and, in turn, provide support to the equity market. Conversely, a downside surprise could lead to a retest of the 10,700–10,800 support corridor. On Friday, the BIST 100 Index declined by 0.43%, with AKBNK, ISCTR, SISE, PASEU and YKBNK delivering the strongest positive index contributions. Over the past week, notable and consistent fund inflows were observed in EREGL, SAHOL, KCHOL, DSTKF, TUPRS, TCELL, VAKBN, ULKER and OYAKC. On today’s domestic agenda, third-quarter GDP data will be in focus. Our expectation is for annual growth of around 4.5% in 3Q25. For the full year 2025, we forecast 3.4% growth, while emphasizing that risks to our projection remain tilted to the upside. Externally, U.S. and European manufacturing PMIs, along with the U.S. ISM manufacturing print, will be monitored. Turkey’s five-year CDS starts the day at 240 basis points.