Daily Bulletin

Good morning. The shift in expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s 10 December meeting—from the 20–30% band to the 60–70% band—and the forward-pricing of the first “certain” rate cut being pulled forward by two months, from March 2026 to January 2026, is providing a constructive tone for global equities. U.S. and European futures are trading in positive territory this morning, while Asia exhibits a mixed pattern. With the U.S. government shutdown having ended, macro data releases have resumed. As the data flow in the coming days will shape expectations for the December meeting, we anticipate U.S.-centric volatility to remain elevated. Meanwhile, Wall Street indices continue to hold above their 100-day exponential moving average, yet the technical risk profile has not fully normalized. As highlighted last week, sustained selling pressure through Thursday could have driven a breakdown below the 100-day EMA, which in turn would have opened the door toward the 200-day EMA—roughly 4% lower. Should such a trajectory translate into a broader global risk-off environment, we would expect fragility in Borsa Istanbul to increase accordingly. Returning to this morning’s agenda, we are entering a phase where domestic political discourse is regaining prominence, thereby raising the probability that BIST will respond more sensitively. The 11,000–11,050 resistance corridor remains intact. A breakout above this zone would effectively resolve the four-month consolidation range to the upside and could accelerate buying momentum. On the downside, the 10,700–10,800 band remains the primary support. On the data front, domestic releases include real sector confidence and capacity utilization, while the Dallas Fed manufacturing index will be tracked in the U.S. Turkey’s five-year CDS opens the day at 244 basis points.