Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk sentiment is starting the new week on a mixed footing. U.S. futures are trading in positive territory this morning, European futures are weaker, and Asian markets exhibit a generally soft tone with selective buying interest. Although the Borsa Istanbul dipped below the 100-day exponential moving average on Friday, the late-session rebound was notable. By the close, the BIST 100 Index had declined by 0.59%, while the top five contributors to the index on the positive side were PASEU, TUPRS, DSTKF, KOZAL, and EKGYO. Throughout the week, companies that stood out with consistent inflows included VAKBN, TAVHL, PETKM, SASA, and SISE. We expect the new week to begin on a constructive note. A move above 10,600 is plausible, though the 10,700 / 10,800 band remains a critical resistance zone. On pullbacks, the 10,450 and 10,300 levels should be monitored as support. In addition to markets’ heightened sensitivity to news and data releases, outflows from certain funds—which hold sizable positions in a small number of stocks—continue to exert downward pressure on Borsa Istanbul. We believe that part of the capital exiting these names will rotate into index-heavy stocks, which should support the market from a medium-term perspective. On today’s agenda: Turkey’s budget balance, the European Commission’s Autumn Forecasts, and U.S. manufacturing and construction data. With the U.S. government shutdown now over, a very dense data calendar is likely in the days ahead. Turkey’s five-year CDS starts the day at 246 basis points.