Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite is starting the new week on a positive note. Expectations of improvement in U.S.–China relations are driving buying interest in U.S. and European futures as well as Asian equity markets this morning. On Friday, Borsa Istanbul closed just below the 11,000 level with a notable inflow of funds. We expect this optimism to continue. However, inflation data will be monitored at 10:00 a.m. when the market opens. A monthly CPI figure of 2.5% or below would support the market, while a reading of 3.0% or above could trigger selling pressure. At Tacirler Investment, we expect October’s monthly CPI increase to come in at 2.71%. In line with our projection, such a reading would indicate a slight decline in annual CPI from 33.3% to 33.1%. We anticipate a noticeable slowdown in monthly inflation during the last two months of the year. We estimate that monthly inflation will fall below 2% in November, due to seasonal effects, and approach 1% in December. Our year-end CPI forecast stands at 31.5% for 2025 and 23% for 2026. Following today’s inflation release, attention will turn to the CBRT’s presentation of the 2025 Q4 Inflation Report on Friday, November 7. On today’s agenda, PMI data will also be in focus. Later in the week, U.S. employment data is expected to take center stage; however, due to the ongoing government shutdown, the figures may not be released. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads start the day again at 245 basis points.