Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite remains positive. In the U.S., the S&P 500 index rose 1.23% yesterday to close at 6,875, leaving only about 2% to reach the year-end target level of 7,000. The 12-month target for the S&P 500 stands around 7,500, implying nearly a 9% upside potential in USD terms. Similar upside expectations are observed across European and Asian equity markets as well. For the BIST 100 index, 12-month target levels are around 15,200, suggesting nearly 40% upside in TRY terms. Considering projections for the USD/TRY exchange rate, the dollar-based potential for BIST 100 is estimated at around 15%, slightly higher compared to global peers. However, we are currently in a period where identifying catalysts that could drive the index toward these targets remains challenging. Factors such as the diminishing expectations of rate cuts from the CBRT, the slowdown in the momentum of credit rating upgrades, and the influence of political developments on risk appetite continue to limit Borsa Istanbul despite its appealing potential. Turning to this morning, we expect a narrow and low-volume trading session in BIST, which will operate on a half-day schedule. Yesterday, the BIST 100 index declined by 0.81%, with ASELS, MAGEN, EREGL, TUPRS, and IEYHO being the top five positive contributors to the index. Over the past week, companies that have experienced consistent or strong fund inflows include TUPRS, KCHOL, YKBNK, TCELL, SISE, TAVHL, BIMAS, and ISCTR. Today’s economic agenda is relatively calm. Due to the Republic Day holiday, the market will be closed tomorrow; however, the Fed’s interest rate decision will be announced at 9:00 p.m. (local time), with its effects likely to be reflected in Thursday morning’s trading. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads have once again fallen below 250 basis points, starting the day at 248 bps. A continued decline in CDS levels would be supportive for the XBANK Banking Index.