Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global risk appetite is weak this morning. Reports that the U.S. is planning new restrictions on software exports to China, the potential cancellation of a summit with Russia, and negative news flow centered around Tesla and IBM are weighing on equity markets. However, we note that the current selling pressure should be viewed as a volatility phase near the top, rather than a structural trend reversal. In Borsa Istanbul, the rebound from the 10,200 / 10,300 support zone extended into its third day, with the BIST 100 index closing slightly above the 10,500 level yesterday. The index rose by 0.80%, with the top five positive contributors being BIMAS, TUPRS, ENKAI, ASELS, and KCHOL. From a fund flow perspective, companies that have stood out with sustained inflows over the past week — including yesterday — are ASELS, TUPRS, TAVHL, EKGYO, AEFES, CCOLA, and TCELL. On today’s agenda, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) interest rate decision will be the key domestic focus. We expect the policy rate to be lowered from 40.50% to 39% with a 150-basis-point cut, while market consensus also leans toward a 100–150 bps reduction. The MPC statement will be closely watched for comments on the recent inflation figures, which have exceeded expectations, as well as for policy guidance. If the MPC leaves the door open for another rate cut at its next meeting on December 11, this could further support Borsa Istanbul. Additionally, as every Thursday, official reserve data will be released. We estimate that the CBRT’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 8.8 billion last week to reach USD 198.6 billion. Lastly, Turkey’s 5-year CDS spread starts the day at 267 basis points, marking a 4 bps increase from yesterday.