Daily Bulletin

Good morning. Global equity markets are trading with volatility near their peak levels, driven by developments in U.S.–China relations, expectations of rate cuts from the Fed, corporate earnings releases, and ongoing geopolitical factors. In Borsa Istanbul, the four-week downward trend paused yesterday, as the BIST 100 index rebounded by 1.44% to close at 10,464, holding above the critical 10,200–10,300 support zone. The top five positive contributors to the index were EREGL, TCELL, DSTKF, TUPRS, and ENKAI, while the main laggards were ASELS, YKBNK, THYAO, PASEU, and PATEK. On the fund flow side, AEFES, ENKAI, and KOZAL stood out among the stocks that have seen consistent inflows over the past week. Although we observed foreign buying in Borsa Istanbul yesterday, there was no broad-based liquidity inflow across the market. Expectations for a rate cut from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have declined, while the disinflation process appears to be losing momentum; together with political developments, these factors may continue to weigh on Borsa Istanbul. Nevertheless, based on company valuations and target prices, the 12-month BIST 100 target points above the 15,000 level, implying an upside potential of around 45%. Revisions may follow the release of 3Q25 financial results in the coming days; however, we do not anticipate significant downward adjustments. For the index to move toward the aforementioned target levels, supportive catalysts—particularly in terms of political developments and MPC expectations—will be needed. Today’s domestic agenda includes housing price and sales data, as well as the Central Bank of Turkey’s upcoming announcements on reserves and foreign transactions. In the U.S., the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) may be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown. Turkey’s 5-year CDS spreads start the day at 267 basis points.